2-3-16 afternoon Yikes again Wxrisk.com added 2 new photos. 2 hrs . *** ALERT!*** MIDDAY MODELS INCREASING SNOW THREAT FRIDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN THIRD OF NC and SE THIRD OF VA 1-3" OF SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY 2AM to NOON ... snow may extended into the Delmarva & eastern half of NJ into NYC Despite the warm temps over NC and VA there IS a strong cold front on the way. IMAGE #1 shwos the storms & hrvy rains with the cold front as it pushes from west to east across central GA... nw SC ... western NC western & ne VA inti central MD southeast PA North NJ/ NYC into interior se NY and New England The front will stall on the se US coast Thursday evening and ALL the midday Models are now showing stronger Low pressure development on the stalled front just off the NC SC coast Friday AM. IMAGE #2 show the EUROPEAN Model vaid FRI at 1am and 7am ** the RED LINE * is the r/s line The BEST chance of seeing a few inches of snow in eastern NC will between I-95/ Raleigh to Elizabeth city and as far south as WILSON / GREENVILLE... and over southeast Third of VA over ALL of Hampton Roads as far as W est Point VA and Petersburg including Emporia and Roanoke rapids KEY POINT the precip over se va and eastern NC will begin as rain pre dawn Friday then mix then go over to snow by 7am... A change in temps by 1 or 2 degrees will ahve a BIG impact MAIN ROADS may be just slushy with best snow accumulations over Grassy Surface Trees Car tops back decks/ Porches
2/4/16 WX Risk Wxrisk.com 19 mins . MORE SHORT RANGE MODELS INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS on FRIDAY FOR -- CENTRAL/ NE VA DELMARVA NJ NYC CT and LONG ISLAND What is important to notice here is that the trend in the short range models as we get closer to FRI AM -- are actually showing a colder solution and appear to be increasing the snow all amounts in this relatively narrow area that runs from Eastern VA into the Delmarva into most of NJ into NYC CT RI and Eastern MASS . The other important trend here is the persistence and a very sharp NW edge to the snow shield. The northwest edge of the snow appears to be fairly close to Washington, DC and a couple of inches of snow appear to reach as far NW t as Philadelphia and Poughkeepsie in se interior NY. However areas just to the north and west see no snow at all. This particular model shows 3 to 4 inches of snow over Eastern Chesterfield County in the Richmond Airport up to Tappahannock in the Northern Neck ...as well as St Marys county in far Southern MD most of the Delamrva and NJ. There may be some 5 to 6" snow amounts over portions of Long Island NYC ... central and Eastern Ct RI and into the Boston metro area - WXRISK SNOW FORECAST OUT BY NOON
Light and a bit windy snow in our area. Less than an inch but enough to have a few non-drivers crashing. Temps in the high 20s.
22/4/16 Wxrisk.com 1 hr . MORE SHORT RANGE MODELS INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS on FRIDAY FOR -- CENTRAL/ NE VA DELMARVA NJ NYC CT and LONG ISLAND What is important to notice here is that the trend in the short range models as we get closer to FRI AM -- are actually showing a colder solution and appear to be increasing the snow all amounts in this relatively narrow area that runs from Eastern VA into the Delmarva into most of NJ into NYC CT RI and Eastern MASS . The other important trend here is the persistence and a very sharp NW edge to the snow shield. The northwest edge of the snow appears to be fairly close to Washington, DC and a couple of inches of snow appear to reach as far NW t as Philadelphia and Poughkeepsie in se interior NY. However areas just to the north and west see no snow at all. This particular model shows 3 to 4 inches of snow over Eastern Chesterfield County in the Richmond Airport up to Tappahannock in the Northern Neck ...as well as St Marys county in far Southern MD most of the Delamrva and NJ. There may be some 5 to 6" snow amounts over portions of Long Island NYC ... central and Eastern Ct RI and into the Boston metro area - WXRISK SNOW FORECAST OUT BY NOON https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk
I don't think Doug will open one eye and roll over for 2-4" of accumulation. Maybe Tuesday into Wednesday.:grin:
Wouldn't ya know it....the snow didn't really hit until early this morning so I wound up plowing it as part of my normal day's work. Damn! I hate plowing snow and not making time and a half! We got 4 or 5 inches and, with no wind, the woods look like a winter wonderland. I just had to take a lunchtime cruise through the woods on my quad. Nice, really nice. :TU: BTW Jim, I work for the County, so there's no way they'd pay me to plow on L.I.
Yikes!! Wxrisk.com 2/5/16 13 hrs . WHAT NEXT ? LOTS OF WINTER WEATHER ABOUT SUNDAY FEB 7 FEB 9 DEB 12 FEB 16 FEB 7 HUGE MASSIVE SOUTHEAST LOW The weather models continue to develop a very strong LOW off the GA Coast on Saturday night and Sunday morning. IF this LOW were to come north IF ... it would bring a blizzard for the East coast !! BUT all models continue to insist that this LOW e is going to pass well to the south and east of Cape Hatteras NC on Sunday. Assuming that this track is correct... This LOW will pass too far off the coast to bring any sort of winter weather to any portion of the Middle Atlantic region. SE/ EASTERN NC could see some snow and MAYBE some light snow into VA beach Norfolk and Chesapeake FEBRUARY 9 LOW - not going to be a big deal Meanwhile the weather models are STILL developing a massive Arctic air mass outbreak which will move rapidly through the Plains and the Midwest this weekend. The arctic cold front will reach the East coast on Monday and some sort of LOW pressure is going to develop on the front as across the Ohio Valley.. This Low will then re-form off the VA Coast and a period of snow is likely across much of VA WVA MD DEL NJ southern PA Monday afternoon evening and into the over night hours of Tuesday morning (depending on your location). Earlier in the week there was some indication that this LOW could become a major winter storm but that is NOT going to happen! The Low pressure area which is going to pass off the NC Coast and out to Sea on Sunday ... is going to influence the ability of this second LOW on Monday to develop off the VA coast. In other words the first LOW is going to restrict the second LOW on Monday from developing into a major system. Behind the FEB 9-10 Low Arctic air comes pouring south on strong nw winds and some snow showers Some data suggests temperatures will drop to the TEENS and single digits over the on the morning of February 11 and February 12. In fact 2nd ARCTIC FRONT / CLIPPER LOW All the weather models show a secondary or reinforcing arctic blast sweeping out of the Plains and e Midwest on February 12 arriving on the East Coast February 13. It is likely that there will be a weak area of LOW pressure associated with this arctic cold front that could bring in a period of snow to the region on February 13. This Low will move up into southeastern Canada where it will become trapped and help set the pattern for a substantially more significant winter storm February 16 FEB 15-16 The FRI midday European model has just come out and it has increased the threat at DAY 10/ FEB 15 for a major winter storm hitting the Midwest and the Middle Atlantic states on February 16 -17. Historically there been a number of major east coast winter storms during this timeframe. The key to this entire event however is the clipper low or reinforcing the arctic front which comes the 13 February. This clipper well may bring a period of snow on the 13th fall by more arctic air but the system will move up into southeastern Canada and set the pattern for significant east coast winter storm FEB 16-17
