I think he's got more seat time than Bruno jr. !!!! :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: BTW yuz tu gyz.......it'z pronownst........FESTEADY............got that ! ! !
JW---Mn and the upper plains receive a big snow along with some blizzard conditions around the middle of next week.
What is going to set this off is just coming off Japan. The blue surrounding the bowling ball could mean you will be receiving a present. Valid Friday January 29, 2016 to Tuesday February 09, 2016 US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST January 26 2016 Synopsis: A cold front is predicted to enter the Pacific Northwest and northern California at the beginning of the period and expand southeastward, bringing unsettled weather to parts of the western lower 48 states. A storm system is forecast to develop over the Southern Plains by Monday and track northeastward to the Great Lakes region by the end of the 3 to 7 day period into the beginning of week-2. A series of storm systems are anticipated to develop over the Bering Sea and Aleutians during the 3 to 7 day period. Cold surface pressure is expected to sink southward from Canada and shift eastward across the country during week-2, possibly bringing anomalously cold temperatures to parts of the lower 48 states during week-2.
I looked at this. The Euro model saw it coming way out in time. There was a lot of debate about how far north the storm was going to reach. NYC was on the northern fringe. The NAM came along later and correctly foresaw it was going to include NYC.
Yeah, they mentioned that on the local news here. They said the NAM was about to lose funding, and their performance for this storm gave them a reprieve.:grin:
Larry--I am afraid Doug has gotten addicted to the snow OT: Wxrisk.com 2 hrs . RUT ROH RAGGY SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN ? What we are saying here is that there is good similarity right now based upon THIS one model valid for about 10 days from now between the projected pattern and the pattern we just went through right before the blizzard develop on the East Coast. This is not of course in any way a forecast-- it constitutes a form of informed speculation at this point in time and nothing more
Jim, Every year, it's the same thing. Once we get hit good, the hits just keep on coming. I'm just glad it started late and I got to drive the GS later than most years. February has been a bad month for us most years, why should this year be any different.:grin: Good for Doug, his motto is, "it's only money, I'll make more":laugh: I hope he makes plenty, I always enjoy watching him wheelie in his race car.
Thursday Morning report from WX Risk: Wxrisk.com added 2 new photos. 3 hrs . TYPICAL LATE JANUARY THAW CONTINUES The big warm up continues! Yes the recent cold front passage (which came through yesterday) has temporarily stabilized temperatures but the overall trend the next several days is for significant warming across the eastern half the country. The warming will be most Noticeable over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys as well as the Middle Atlantic region. The warming trend will also reached into central and southern New England as well as interior portions of New York State but temperatures there will not be nearly as warm as what we see in the Middle Atlantic region . The FIRST image shows Max temperatures from the European model valid for Sunday, January 31. Notice the readings into the low 60s across much of central and southern VA ...all of NC... WVA... and KY. . The SECOND image is valid for February 3 before the strong cold front arrives on the FEB 4 -- notice that readings into the 60s has surged up into NYC CT and southern New England . Notice that Upper 60s has reached into all of central eastern northern VA ....Low 60s over MD & much of PA ....and Upper 50s into NYC southern New England. . All that being said rest assured that Winter cold and semi arctic air will return with a cold front passage late on February 3 into the morning of February 4. . *** With regard to the potential for significant Winter storm over the eastern U.S ..or for the East Coast February 7-8-9... Nothing really has change with regard to the model data. There is a threat but I cannot at this time say that the threat is increasing or decreasing. I will look at this and more detail on the midday and afternoon data and have the latest information on the updated edition of the NEXT 3 WEEKEND NEWSLETTER this evening. ** . Finally as we move into February it will be time time to start talking about the Spring season which is not that great news for Winter weather lovers but it is for those who as severe wx fanatics and thiose have agricultural concerns in the Middle Atlantic and throughout the country -whether it is Grain farmers Livestock... fruit farmers.. or vineyards... never mind the 2016 Baseball season Wxrisk.com's photo. Wxrisk.com's photo.
1/30/16 *** ALERT !** new edition of NEXT 3 WEEKENDS newsletter is on line! This may be the most important edition of the newsletter in last 4 months - ARCTIC BLASTS ARE COMING TOPICS include- 1) the latest on the warm up 2) Possible significant Severe weather threat on Delta / Gulf coast FEB 3 3) Winter cold returns to central/ eastern US by FEB 3-4 4) POSSIBLE series of large scale Arctic air mass outbreak FEB 5-15 5) fairly strong signal of East coast winter storms FEB 8-10
Wxrisk.com 6 hrs . WHY DOES MY SMART PHONE WEATHER APP SAY " XYZ" ... BUT WXRISK SAYS "ABC"? . Go back to last week. Some of you reading this may have posted this question to me or to other friends family members what have you... "My weather smart phone app has no snow for Jan 22-23 I wonder why WxRisk is so bullish on the big snow idea" . or perhaps this -- "my smart app has rain and snow for Jan 22-23 It doesnt look like a big snow to me...." . There are several reasons for this. But in order to fully comprehend why this is often the case you have to understand a few things about weather and weather forecasting. . PREMISE #1 CHOAS THEORY tells us that it is much easier to forecast a sunny day in MAY with a temperature of 72 than it is to forecast a snowstorm in January that might mix with Sleet or change to rain. In other words the weather that is simple and relatively calm is by definition ALWAYS easier to forecast accurately then weather that is complex or severe . . PREMISE #2--- since premise#1 true ....it follows that it is difficult if not impossible for a smart phone weather at to accurately convey the complexities of a coastal storm or hurricane or severe weather event. Most of these smart phone taps have these little cute icons of snow or clouds or rain or a thunderstorm but that does not really convey a lot of information to you. Are the thunderstorms going to arrive in the morning or the afternoon? Is the snow going to be just a little or will it be significant? How much rain? When does it begin? . Our view is that almost all of the weather apps out there beyond 48 hours are essentially well not that particularly helpful and many them just flat out suck. . PREMISE #3 --all of the weather smart phone apps for all locations in the U.S. Canada and throughout the world are based off of one ( and ONLY one) computer model. Think about this. Do you really think that when you call up a forecast for say Calgary Canada that a human (or semi human) meteorologist has actually compare that forecast out to 10 days? For 10,000 locations throughout the world? NOT HAPPENING. . The weather model that ALL the smart phones are based off of is the American weather model which is also known as the GFS. I have talked about the flaws in this model for some time and considerable detail. The models pretty good out the 72 or 84 hours but beyond that the strong biases which exist in the model not only make the actual model projections of LOW and HIGH cold fronts or hurricanes ...increasingly inaccurate as you go further out in time... But flaws in the model also mean it's temperature forecasts are essentially useless beyond three days. . For example one of the well known and documented problems with the G FS model is that it has a cold bias. What meteorologist mean when they talk about that is that the model has a tendency of favoring the polar jet stream over the southern jet stream regardless of the type the weather pattern we are in. Since however most East Coast snowstorms, about be cause of the interaction between the southern jet and the polar jet... Any model which mishandles the southern jet stream or over does the northern jet stream is going to miss represent and screw up an East Coast winter storm forecast. . This is particularly trouble some when you have a strong active southern jet stream in a El Nino winter like we are currently experiencing. . Lets do a thought experiment... Suppose the GFS Model shows an area of low pressure over GA in middle or late February. Because the model mishandles the southern jet stream and over does the northern jet stream ...the GFS model will often slide system like this off the GA / sc Coast and out to sea at day 4 or day 6 or day 8. . This bias or tendency for the GFS model to do this causes a cascade of errors to develop . . In the months February and March as the sun power is increasing ...if the GFS Model slides that GA Low off the SC and out to sea ... then the GFS model is likely to depict the Middle Atlantic and New England regions as seeing Sunny skies and temperatures are likely to be into the 50s and Low 50 - even with relatively cold air in place. . So in our hypothetical not only does the GFS model misrepresent the position of Low pressure systems that might be an East Coast snowstorm... but because of the cold bias of the GFS model ... it also means it's temperature forecasts are likely be way off because instead of showing overcast skies NE winds and precipitation ... the model shows Sunshine and mild temps. GOT IT?
2-2-16 Wxrisk.com 11 hrs . EVENING UPDATE -- First I am working on the new edition of the NEXT 3 WEEKENDS Newsletter which should be out by 900 pm #1 FEB 5 THREAT FOR EASTERN NC - some of the data on Monday backed off of this event but the Tuesday afternoon European model as well as the 18z GFS have bought this threat (risk of snow) for the eastern third of North Carolina as well as southeastern VA during the predawn hours of Friday. This may be more of a rain MIXED with snwo that ends as type of event. A fw inches are ** POSSIBE ** -- not certain -- for locations such as Hampton roads ... and over the Middle Peninsula ...the southern Delmarva ..perhaps into Richmond ..down towards Roanoke Rapids ...Raleigh ... Rocky Mount and Elizabeth City NC. #2 FEB 7 THREAT- a significant area of Low pressure is going to come off the FL coast on Sunday morning and rapidly intensifies as the parallels the Southeast U.S. Coast. Right now all the model data keeps this LOW to the south and east of Cape Hatteras and the system brings moderate rain to much of central and eastern NC. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow across much of central and eastern VA & the Delmarva on Sunday night into Monday morning but we don't know how close to the coast this Low is going to track. Right now most of the model data keeps the heavy precipitation offshore BUT it only take a small shift in the track to the NW (by say 100 miles) to bring accumulating snow back into central and eastern Va & lower MD Eastern shore areas. More on this later . #3 FEB 9-10 POSSIBLE BIG STORM &u ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC COLD All the models show a massive trough developing over the Midwest over Super Bowl weekend. Arctic air will come pouring southward early next week overrunning the Plains and the Midwest. A strong piece of energy in the jet stream in this system will develop LOW pressure over the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. The European model with a superior resolution and physics package shows the1st low " dying " and redeveloping as a second Low off the NC / Southeast VA coast FEB 9 ... From there the European model and the European ensemble develops this Low into a significant East Coast winter storm that brings some snow to portions of VA MD DEL NJ se PA but it becomes a major snowstorm for most of New England. This system has the potential to bring 1 to 2 feet of snow to much of New England and could have major impact on the New Hampshire primary on February 9. 2-3-16 ALERT ! * new NEXT 3 WEEKENDS Newsletter is on line! TOPICS INCLUDE : FEB 5 Eastern NC rain or snow? --- FEB 7 LOW might clip eastern NC & se VA...maybe!! -- FEB 9 LOW could be a big one for NYC & New England ---- Possibly 2 ARCTIC Blasts on the way FEB 9-11 and on FEB 12-14 --- .The Last week of FEB 2016 & 1st week of MARCH 2016 has some serious East coast snowstorm Potential
Yup, we got 9-12" in the Twin City area, and about 3" up in Pine City Here.. Which would be fine, except for the two houses and 200' of sidewalk I have to clear in MPLS.. Off to buy a new slowblower this morning.. My last small one pooped out here about 3 years ago, and the last two winters have not had this big a snow.. JW
Weather Underground is now forecasting 5-8 inches for eastern Pa. Last night's forecast was for <1" ! Jim, The wxrisk is a subscription service, correct? I did check out the Facebook page, some info there too. Thanks for all the updates!
Yes Walt=--Wx Risk Facebook is free and basically a loss leader for his full reports which are by subscription. He is focused on the East Coast weather. I think he lives in Virginia.
