Talk about inflation….

I've said this before and it's worth repeating. True economic indicators come from how much freight is moved for people to buy. Those indicators have remained flat, or slightly contracted ever since the plandemic began. My former employer, whom I recently retired from, did not establish a Christmas holiday bonus for their drivers in 2023. The usual holiday demand for goods simply didn't materialize. It was the first time in 14 years that happened.

Unemployment numbers are skewed so badly as many have given up looking for work. Why work when governments hand out free money?

Governments don't have revenue problems per se, they have spending ones. Same for a good percentage of the population.

 

Holy ****! No way this thread would fall off the tracks...

 

Consumer spending was up for Christmas 2023. The problem for the freight market is that manufacturers overproduction and the glut of on-hand inventory meant that less needed to be shipped. Between that and over-capacity issues (way too many ships available, way too many trucks available) freight rates have logically dropped.

Yes, unemployment numbers are somewhat skewed by people giving up altogether or taking part-time jobs. Adding under-employment can take some of that into account.

But job creation numbers are a great indicator. The number of people employed has been steadily / almost spectacularly rising for two years while unemployment has stayed relatively constant. So yeah, doing well.

 

give it time it is all coming just in time too you'll go whew glad that wasn't my guy

 

For years, Walmart was the largest employer in the country, not anymore. It’s now one single government agency, the VA.

 

There was a glut of goods, likely driven by higher consumer spending during the business shutdowns and working from home. As people returned to work there was less demand. There was less production during the shutdowns as well. I've been watching truck freight volumes and rates for years. Manufacturers require large crystal balls to anticipate the future. Not uncommon for 6-9 month predictions, which got skewed in 2020 by increased demand.

I also spoke with those in the know at my employer who said the past 4-5 years have been terrible overall. Trucking companies resorted to cutting rates just to keep drivers moving. Sometimes that meant losing revenue in hopes of obtaining better paying freight elsewhere. Large companies were able to do this short term. Unfortunately many smaller, and a few large ones, went bankrupt. Trucking companies ARE NOT money printing machines. Profit margins are generally very small. That's why some offer additional services, such as warehousing, freight brokerage, etc., etc.

Job creation in trucking has flatlined.

Anyway, inflation seems to be slowing. Locked in my mortgage at 1.92% over 5 years in Sept 2021 just prior to the SHTF. Almost impossible to get longer terms in Canada. Hoping to see greater demand for homes materialize in 2025 or 2026 as interest rates drop. That's when I'll probably sell and downsize.

 

The president is supposed to submit one and congress is supposed to Swiss cheese it, lard it up and pass it. Spending bills, continuing resolutions and stopgap spending bills are not budgets.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/20-years-of-congresss-budget-procrastination-in-one-chart/

Your words, "...it would sure make a dent."

Sounded like you would entertain the possibility. The ends justify the means?

I went to Florida 3 times in 2021 during NY lockdowns. Never had a problem going to the grocery, to restaurants or the beach and never wore a mask the first time. Didn't catch so much as a cold. I avoided NY like the plague. Then again, I was healthy, not overweight and didn't go to any nursing homes.
https://nypost.com/2022/02/23/without-mandates-or-lockdowns-florida-better-managed-covid-than-ny/

 

Wisdom and knowledge are two entirely different things. Wisdom is viewing the same question, from both sides, and coming to a logical conclusion using the knowledge available at the time. Knowledge by itself, can never be trusted without question.

Today's 'Science' has completely abandoned that principal, in so many ways, it's no longer trustworthy. It's my way or the highway, period. Any dissent from the status quo is met with cancellation, job loss, and public ridicule. A detriment to everyone.

Science is not, and has never been, a unanimous consensus. It questions everything. Regardless of what they are teaching today.

If it were, we would be pouring hot tar on the polar ice caps to prevent global cooling.

Several people have posted with their real life experience. A small handful have tried to counter their argument. A bit of research (outside the comfort zone) may point to the right answer. There are nuggets of truth from both sides.

Just a rambling of a dummy who's spent well over half my life watching things evolve.

 

Your pointing to this as a positive economic indicator?

When the price of a real tree, and everything that goes under that tree, climbs dramatically as the result of inflated production and transportation costs, then yes, consumers, especially those holding credit cards, will increase the amount they spend.

It does not necessarily translate to a better gift giving Holiday.

Unless you believe that some magical guy in a sliegh will make up the difference...

Ho Ho Ho

 

5 will get you 10, no, scratch that due to inflation, 20 will get you 40, John would have been in favor.

It's not hard to imagine, and I'm not the only one.

 

Christmas sales were up because the prices were up. Less (way less) freight shipped. Don't repeat what the news headlines say without some context.
Janet Yellen said a couple of weeks ago that "Wages are up higher than inflation" math is hard for her.

 

Not true. Cost of goods sold includes all corporate expenses. As to the jet - company purchases of plant, property, and equipment that have a useful life of longer then a year are called capital expenses. A useful life of the jet would have to be established; in this case let's say 10 years, just to keep the math simple. The company would be allowed to deduct $100,000 as a business expense each year each year for 10 years. If there is someone who is on this forum who is an accountant, I realize that my explanation is an oversimplification, but it's close to what actually happens. BTW - I also realize that $1 million for an operable jet would actually be a down-payment.

 

The COVID-19-associated mortality rates per 100,000 person-weeks during the first wave of the pandemic were 0.3 in Norway and 2.9 in Sweden. Conclusions: All-cause mortality in 2020 decreased in Norway and increased in Sweden compared with previous years. The observed excess deaths in Sweden during the pandemic may, in part, be explained by mortality displacement due to the low all-cause mortality in the previous year.

 

Florida lost 34K people during Covid, or 111 per 100k people. Texas lost 45K, or 151/100K. Virginia lost 9K or 58/100K. NY lost 22K or 83/100K.
Covid sucked for everyone and the impact is still being felt.

 

If you own say an Auto repair business in WA state and perform $3 million in car repairs and lose say$300,000 for the year. You will still pay Washington state $45,000 in business taxes. They do not care if you lost money. Look at all the businesses you drive by daily, the checks they are writing quarterly boggle the mind.

To say corporations don't pay taxes is repeated by those who know nothing about running a business. That's just one tax, there are many more.

 

Best I can tell, that is a phony graph only disseminated by anti-vax conspiracy theorists, not a report released by actual scientists or respected authorities subject to peer review.

 

Just because the supposed source is spelled incorrectly shouldn't mean anything.