Elon is one very ingenious fellow. I've not had the pleasure of riding in one but have checked them out in the showroom several times and they are one very sweet ride. You are more than welcome to check out every nook and cranny of them and the showroom people are very friendly and knowledgeable. They have several cutaways to show all the cool parts under the body. You could get into a new one for about 70 grand but bells and whistles will run it up to 100 quickly.
If we build cars that can go 250 miles on a charge, what will the corn growers do? They will actually have to grow corn for food again instead of ethanol.
Watch "Who Killed The Electric Car" http://vimeo.com/19863733 (video quality is not the best, but its watchable) GM did the EV1 a long time ago.. the people who had one loved them. But if you watch till the end... the patten for the battery designed for the car, eventually made its way to the hands of oil companies after major lobbying, California law that required manufactures to build an electric car if they wanted to sell cars in Californian, changed its mind, and GM took back all 1500 leased cars and .... crunch.... gone....Really makes you think!
According to "ASK " the U.S. uses 19,498,000 daily, from that amount 8,989,00 is used for transportation. I found several different quotes on how much of that amount is used for passenger vehicles. That figure was around 73%. In 2010 the U.S. was by far the biggest consumer of oil. I doubt that has changed much. I really don't think the oil companies want to see electric vehicles replacing gas or diesel vehicles. http://www.ask.com/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_consumption Bob H.
I think corporate fear of suits (any new technology is risky, just look at the drive-by-wire debacle for Toyota) and a more general worry about consumer acceptance of anything different are more at work here than some big conspiracy. Early adopters know about short comings and embrace change; general owners not so much. Look at how many folks can't understand Ford's Sync system. Going electric? You're talking about a huge investment that at best puts your Cruze customer into a Volt instead-- a lot of money spent for no real gain. If you're trying to get 'conquest' customers, it's more important how many you get, not what you get them with. To that end their money is much better spent putting better seats in the 'Vette or better suspension and a turbo on the Regal GS. If GM and Ford are willing to abandon the entire minivan market because they weren't moving enough units and couldn't capture the people who already own Chrysler or import vans, there's no way to justify spend much on electric research. At least not yet. When there's money to be made (not pissed away like the OPM that's been given to Tesla), it'll happen. Patrick
I guess that it is how you view it. If I had a fixed amount of a product, I would want to make a comfortable living from my supply for as long as I could. I suppose that there are some folk who would try to sell it as fast as they possibly could,and try to make a profit on the excess cash. If you think "Big oil" wants to sell it as fast as possible, there is nothing that I can add. I am in the camp that would try to stretch the time frame. Since Exxon-Mobil is my largest stock holding, I hope that they are too.
Even if all cars were electric in 20 years...that would not make much of a dent in fossil fuel use since there are an abundance of cars on the roads that are over 20 years old. Factor that in with people like us who will need to run gas. Then you can throw in the 3rd world countries like Africa, Mexico, and Central America who can't even afford infrastructure. Planes can't run on electricity, Ships...maybe can, but need diesel engines to power the motors(if they have electric spinners). 20 Years is not enough to "phase out" gas/diesel. Maybe 60 years...I think that's even conservative.
I suppose it's of note (if not already mentioned) that these cars are built in the former GM Fremont plant where a lot of our favorite iron was assembled.
I remember that place!!! Uhhh...thats where the Great Mall of the South Bay is, right? And then Sears Point was right up the interstate from there. Had a lot of fun at Sears Point when I was a kid.
The Tesla model S is also build (assembled) in the Netherlands, because of tax regulations. (just like they built Buicks in countries like Switzerland and Belgium in the past) It's a way to dodge the 10% import tax on cars. Still you pay 72,600.00 Euro / US$ 95,608.73 for the base model with 60 kWh battery pack. And 83,150.00 Euro / US$ 109,490.00 for the base model with 85 kWh battery pack.
Electric cars are not going to replace fossil-fuel powered cars anytime soon. The charging infrastructure does not exist, nor does the current power grid have the capacity to handle the electrical load. The competent CEO of a global corporation is as concerned about his markets 5, 10, 25, and even 50 years out as he is about today. The USA is a mature economy, with a relatively stable population (the US population would actually be declining slightly without immigration). Our official population is about 315 million people. Barring some unforseen quantum leap in industry, it is unlikely that the USA is going to have a gigantic increase in prosperity anytime in the near future. The middle-class manufacturing jobs are gone, and are unlikely to return anytime soon. Contrast that with China (1.354 billion) and India (1.270 billion) with economies that are developing, and it doesn't take a genius to see where the demand for hydrocarbons will be in the next century. Neither China nor India have a power grid that can come close to recharging electric cars in quantity, so their demand for oil will remain high and continue to increase. Both countries are in the later stages of converting their rail systems from coal-fired steam locomotives to oil-burning Diesels, so even more demand for oil will occur (If you are a steam freak - the Chinese QJ is an awesome locomotive). Oil use in the USA should remain relatively stable. There will be a gradual increase in the number of highway vehicles, but this should be offset by greater fuel economy as the technology continues to improve. Selling oil in the 21st century will not be a problem; electric cars, CFLs, solar panels, wind turbines, and the like not withstanding.
Tesla is a subject that I am quite passionate about. It is a company headed by an immigrant industrialist named Elon Musk, like that of many of the early automotive pioneers. He knows how to put a team together, he knows how much to be involved and he has a work ethic that is unparalleled. Having said that, he is not the brains of the technology (a good thing). Key members of the team have developed all of the advancements and as they have progressed they have attracted even more talent. They have gone through some growing pains but are fast learners. They have sales and capabilities of making about 21k of the Model S this year with most being in the US. At this moment they are just beginning deliveries outside of the US. The batteries are the component that adds so much to the cost of the vehicle. Battery technology is now at the forefront like microprocessors were in the late 1990's and early 2000's. Some of the promising advances in battery technology actually include environmentally friendly options. Tesla Motors was the one to put the combination together. The Model S uses a 17" touch screen to control the entire car. Gone are all the buttons, knobs, dials, etc. Eliminating all of that is the true shinning moment for a fledgling auto maker. No need for $100's of thousands of dollars in tool and die costs, fitting, revisions, changes, etc. The car itself has the lowest center of gravity and drag co-efficient of any car produced. It has achieved the highest crash test rating ever awarded. It is the Motortrend car of the year and was given the highest score ever by Consumer Reports. The car is made at the old Freemont plant and is one of the highest US sourced vehicles produced. The factory makes nearly everything from their own castings, all of the sheetmetal, plastic parts and battery assembly. It has a warranty that covers EVERYTHING except tires. It has a guarantee to have the highest resale value of any luxury brand. The car is even warranted against battery failure for even neglect such as not charging it for a year (only exception is physical abuse or tampering). The car does start at $70k and you get a $70k car, not a $13k Nissan Versa with a battery and electric motor. It needs no maintenance, that plus the savings in fuel make the $70k car more like a $50k car. The high end car will beat a BMW M5 in the quarter mile. With the weight of the battery which is placed below the floor the car handles surprisingly well in snow. There are other perks as well, like if it needs servicing, they do pick up and delivery and you get the highest end model as a loaner. If you like that higher end car, you can upgrade to it seamlessly. Tesla offered a shorter range, less expensive car but there were too few orders to produce the car. The demand has been for the mid and upper car. Once the battery tech catches up, a less expensive, mass produced car will be available, projected for 2016. The electric grid won't be burdened by electric cars, increases in Industry and everyday life will cause significantly more. Tesla has a series of superchargers available FREE to owners. http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger By 2015 these superchargers will enable travel anywhere in the US for FREE. Tesla batteries can also be changed out in 30 seconds, but the equipment and labor begins to negate the savings over fuel. The superchargers are augmented with solar panels and some produce more electric than needed and feed the grid. I have owned stock in Tesla since this time last year, and I have bought and sold it a couple of times there was a supposed hiccup. Tesla and their stock have rebounded almost instantly every time. Take a peak at their stock value and you could say I beat myself up every time I think about it. There are people that have paid for their Model S's from their stock profits and there is even a catch phrase of 'Teslanaires' which represents those that have become millionaires off of Tesla's stock. I still believe that what goes up must come down, but I, and many critics have been wrong thus far. This is a smooth transition into this technology, and the Tesla has given more street credit to it than any past or current offerings. It will trickle down. It will eliminate some of the day to day pollution generation (cars are pretty clean now but require advanced and expensive measures to obtain) and reduce oil consumption. It is much easier and less expensive to control emissions at a power plant than it is to do it on millions of individual vehicles. We need oil for so many other things than just vehicles, any way we can reduce it is use is better in the long run.
As long I have my 70 sporty which is paid for and gets around 13 to 15 miles per, I have no urge to pay 100k for a car that's electric. The cost benefit analysis shows its cheaper for the consumer to buy a gas powered over a hybrid like the Volt. So a 100k all electric vehicle is unmanageable for all but the most wealthy. I remember the EVO GM would not sell the cars they gifted some to celebrities and politicians. Some day we might be able to get off gasoline but the number of cars that here in the US will be over shadowed by the rest of the world. I for one would agree to have my cars converted to LPG or propane to keep it on the road. There is also diesel the technology exists to make a engine that has high power in a small diesel package. I would ask GM why they do not have a small diesel engine with a turbo for the 1/2 ton truck. Could it be they would not sell as many of their 60k heavy duty trucks? Imagine a 2 liter diesel in say a s-10 style truck
There have been a lot of great and intelligent comments on the subject of electric cars. I want to start by saying I realized when I started the thread that electric cars wouldn't or won't be replacing gas/diesel cars anytime soon if ever. I do believe however there is room for a car such as the Tesla along with the rest. I also believe big oil is greedy and don't want to see it happen. They don't like losses I'm sure, regardless of how small. I'm still puzzled as to why Tesla is the only one offering the technology that results in a car with a decent range. Bob H.
Hi Dave, I hope that no one has taken any of my comments to suggest that electric cars are a bad idea. My feeling is that for years to come, electrics and hybrids will occupy a niche - primarily purchased by folks who want to make a statement or have a driving style that fits the characteristics of this type of car. (Conan O'Brien recently made a comment about Prius drivers being the worst, because of the difficulty of driving and patting yourself on the back at the same time). For 23 years I had a 4.7 mile commute. It would sound like a natural for an electric car, but when I analyzed the entire situation, it was not. The electric would have satisfied only my commuting needs. It would have to have been in addition to my regular car. This means an additional car purchase, additional sales tax. additional registration, additional insurance, additional state inspection ($29 in MA)... you get the idea. An electric simply would not have been cost effective. As to the late, lamented EVO - it is my understanding that they were leased only. GM felt that it would have been a sales flop if they had to sell them for a price that actually reflected the true cost of the car. GM didn't want the expense of supporting so few vehicles. I have read all sorts of articles about oil company conspiracies and other evil doings in regard to the demise of the EVO, but the reality was that it was a simple business decision.
They had better lobbyist for government start up money than anyone else. ---------- Post added at 09:59 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:53 AM ---------- My commute to work is 9 miles each way. Also sounds like a no brainer for an electric car, especially with electrical rates being dirt cheap here on top of that. However, like you I analyzed my economics and in the grand scheme of things it cost me $4 a day (~18mpg) to drive to and from work (on the high side), that is ~$832/yr working 4 days a week. I'd never break even on a new car purchase for just commuting (ie ~35mpg econobox) let alone a premium electric car. Plus, I live 250 miles from dang near anything, so every trip would require an overnight stay at minimum or two days to get to my destination if the closest down wasn't my destination. And that assumes the car can even make the 250 miles, as according to some reports, when the weather gets cold the range is substantially reduced. I have considered a Volt, but again the economics of keeping a dedicated commuter car isn't in my favor after purchase price and insurance.
Tesla received just under $500 million as a government loan from a Dept. of Energy program that was started under Bush and implemented under Obama. Tesla was required to begin re-paying the loan once the Model S hit the market and be paid in full within 5 years. The Model S began deliveries in late 2012 and Tesla paid off the entire loan within six months! From that same program, Nissan took a couple of billion $ and Ford took several billion $. With $500M Tesla gave us a revolutionary car, Nissan gave us the Leaf and Ford the Fusion Electric. Nissan Leafs are that affordable electric and are available used for under $20k. I am mostly excited about the technology. The 500 mile car will be the holy grail. Even knowing all of this, if I had $60k burning a hole in my pocket there would be a 2014 Vette in my driveway. After that a Tesla. But A Toyota FRS (because Tesla and Toyota already have a working relationship) would make a great electric sports car. I enjoy all of the automotive related advances. Another electric project is in China. They have a city bus system and the bus runs off of Ultra Capacitors. The bus drives the same route every day and when it stops to pick up/drop off passengers, a roof top mounted apparatus elevates and contacts charging wires above the bus stop. In a few moments the capacitors are fully charged and have enough juice to get the bus to the next stop where the process is repeated. On the new Corvette, they have a vent that opens to make it easier to close the hatch or doors. They wanted to save weight and opted against a traditional electric motor. They use a bi-metal strip that responds to electricity (recently GM has applied for 41 patents of this technology). When you open the door or hatch, electricity energizes the bi-metal and it compresses or stretches opening the vent (kind of like the old Q- jet chokes but activated by electricity). When the door/hatch is closed, electricity is removed and the bi-metal returns to its original state. Why did I spend all of this time mentioning this? How about an electric motor on say a house fan that is run on electric pulses instead of constant, maybe reduce that consumption by 1/2 or a 1/3. Through evolution and scaling, that could be done in an electric car motor!
