In southern Bama where im at (45min north of Florida) we are getting a little nervous. Jim Haas, good luck buddy, it seems as if Florida is getting another big one, eye right now is 22 miles wide. Supposed to become a category 5 before long. Good luck to all those in Florida, g/fs parents retired in Sarasota outside Tampa, they are leaving soon! Supposed to go to Miami for friends 21st bday (10 hr banzai run down there) looks like it is not going to happen. Ill take pics b/c ill probably be on the beach this weekend (orange beach florida 1hr drivetime!):beer
At the slow projected forward speed at the time of landfall it is predicted to take 24 hours to run up the longitudinal axis of the state. By comparison Charlie took 8 hours. It is 3 times the size of Charlie. (300 mile diameter) Florida I would say averages no where that much in width. The maximum sustained winds now are 140 mph (Cat 4) with the chance of increasing to Cat 5.
The chances for landfall in NC are low but Florida and GA are in grave danger. It really looks like a bad one. Jim is right, it is wide, slow and high winds. Our prayers are out to everyone in its path. Hang on
To be frank, i'm DEFINATELY worried about this one. It won't be pretty... we're going to lose a LOT of people, especially if it hits Broward/Palm Beach county direct.. This could be THE catastrophy of the century, if not in US history. The eye is 2/3 the size of Dade County, hurricane winds are 500 miles across the pattern, perfectly convex eye, and now we have a double eye wall that just appeared... The worst part, is that the storm is NOT moving where the TV stations say it is, it's really about 40-50 miles south of what they are saying. It is moving 10 miles west for every 5 miles north or about 280*-285*, not the 300*-315* they state it is.. 600 miles away, a 20* error could be the key difference in life or death. We don't have any shelters around here to safely protect us from the current 164mph gusts, and climbing. I was in the middle of Andrew and at my house it hit 180 mph gusts, but i'm REALLY worried about our security with this one, especially if it slows down. JH
Currently the highest probability for landfall is West Palm Beach. Jim If you decide to leave in a hurry charter an aircraft. They are going to be flying a bunch out of there anyway. The dilemma is always when you can get back in.
How are the weather people missing its location? I hope they are all wrong and it takes a sharp turn north and then east! http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/ They say it may hit from the FL Keys to NC's Cape Hatteras. They have never tracked a storm like this one. So they truly don't know what to expect. Take care Jim H.
Thanks for the link. Living in eastern NC the last thing I want is misinformation about the hurricane.
when you go to www.noaa.com then go to Frances column on the left side then to *discussion* on the top header this is where the forecasters talk the talk... it says 177mph so far... then go to *satellite imagery* in the left column again, and have fun with the images and live loops in the west Atlantic section then go to intellicast.com, look up the storm and track it across the screen with a 12" ruler, you'll see it is headed clearly more south than the TV talk. i'm at about 25.36 and 80.19 on my GPS I predict + or - 50 miles of Fort Pierce inlet for landfall. Then again, if it slows tonight to 12-13 mph forward motion, I predict landfall within 50 miles to the north of me, which would be an absolute travesty of demolition in South Broward-North Dade..
Looks like you have done your homework! My Uncle lives near Fort Pierce in Port St. Lucie. My Mom talked with him two nights ago and he ain't happy either. Are you planning on leaving or staying?
I'm staying, rather be here than caught on the turnpike with a half million other's... My brother bailed out of Stuart this afternoon, there will be a mandatory evac of St Lucie and Martin County tomorrow at 8am. Palm Beach County evac will be at 2pm tomorrow. BIG problem now is getting fuel, as the delivery trucks stop running tomorrow morning, and a BUNCH of stations are now empty.
I hope no one waits till the last minute and gets caught out in it! I have been checking out the latest sites you sent me. It makes me a little more nervous now! I drove around in one back in 84? and thought it was fun. But now with a wife and two boys I think a little differently.
Jeeze guys, will keep you in our prayers, for safety of all, this stinks, in other words *****, please be safe! Do what you can for your family and friends, as always! RV
they just dropped the forecast track another 50 miles..... NOT looking good at all........ if it hits just north of, or right over Lake Okeechobee, this could be a real nightmare, those dikes won't hold...
This storm is staying at the same wind speeds, same travel speeds and the same direction for a while now. It does not look good. I remember Andrew in 92 and it was a Cat 5 storm. So FL may be looking at the same or more damage! Jim, I know that you live on the south side of this storm track and that the NE corner of the Hurricane is the worst, but are you sure you want to stay? If you do stay you will be around to help those in need! Take care and our prayers are with ya! How have you protected your Buicks? I have two in the shop and my favorite one is in the enclosed trailer and hooked to the Suburban ready to go. Just load up the family and the valubles and leave. But as of now we may be OK.
Think about how the southfloridaracing.com guy's are feeling. Good luck to anyone in florida, board them windows up and hide! :TU:
