I was trying to figure out approximately how many 1970 Stage 1 4 speed hardtops were made in Aquamist. There's really no way to know exactly, but maybe some of you guys could make an educated guess. I failed statistics:grin: Fact #1- There were 664 GS Stage 1 4 speeds made in 1970 Fact #2- Out of 8,054 big block GS hardtops, there were 174 painted Aquamist in 1970. But only 103 of them were painted in Flint as per the DCRs. So only those could of been Stage 1s So out of those 103 cars, how many were Stage 1 4 speeds? with a black vinyl top? optioned exactly like mine? I did some searching on the registry and could only find two other Stage 1 4 speeds in code 34. One has a white painted top, the other a black painted top. No vinyl top cars accounted for....yet So does anyone want to venture an educated guess based on the little info we know? Duane, Jim?
8.2% of GS 455 hardtops were Stage 1 4-speed (664/8054.) So, is we apply that proportion to the 174 Aqua Mist GS 455 hardtops, we get 14 cars. That's as close as we can get with the info you provided.
Thats what I was trying to figure out . I actually came up with the figure of 8 cars. Wouldnt you use the 103 figure instead of the 174o No: , since Stage 1s were only built in Flint in 70. Only 103 of the 174 could of been Stage 1s. Using the 103 figure- 8.2% of 103 is 8.446. Rounding it off would give you approx 8 cars. Either way, its probably safe to say that there werent too manyp . I forgot to add Brett Slater's Aquamist 70 Stage 1 4 speed to the list. Brett's old car to the best of my knowledge does not appear in the registry. Brett says the car still exists. So that would make 4 known cars all together.
Basketball Sams car has a white vinyl top and I have seen several other Stage-1's this color all with white vinyl tops over the years at the GS Nationals. Probably a few more than you think.
I've seen another one out here in the Northwest a couple of years ago at a BOP meet and the same car at another local cruise-in. It's a Aqua-mist 70 Stage 1 455 4-speed with a black vinyl top and interior. It was perfect.
Jason, Last time I spoke with Oliver Colteryahn, the car still existed and was awaiting resto in sunny California. I think he's on the board as "yellow x" or something similar to that....
This one was at a show, daytona I think, in the early 90's . No idea on the trans but I can't see a column shifter so its either a console auto or 4-speed. My father in law took the pic for me. I wasn't there. Anyone know this car?
To use the Flint-built 103 figure and have it be valid all the denominator in the initial percentage calculation needs to be FLINT-BUILT GS 455 hardtops.
Nicholas, is right. You need to know how many GS 455 cars were made at Flint. Use that number in the in the denominator, and the 664 on the top to get your percentage. I don't have the numbers in front of me at this time since I'm at work (DURING BREAK):laugh: but when I get home I'll try to find my paper work.
5,462 455 coupes built in Flint, 103 were Aqua Mist, or 1.89%. IF 1.89% of the 664 Stage 1 4 speeds were Aqua Mist, that would be 12.5, rounded up to 13. Of course, you could go one step further I think. 19 of the Aqua Mist cars had side mouldings. I am guessing that yours didn't? That would make it one of 84 in that color, which when doing the math, drops it down to one of 10.2! Now we are having fun! :beer
This is GREAT!!!! I came out close to what Chris got using a different way. Here how I came up with the numbers. Total number of 455 hardtops built at Flint plant (excluding GSXs) = 4784 Total number of Stage1 hardtop 4spds at Flint ( excluding GSXs) = 664 Doing a % with these two numbers = 13.8796% Then I multiplied the 103 AquaMist cars from Flint with that 13.8796% and came out with 14 cars.:TU: I like EXTRAPILATNG!!!!
Thats awesome guys! :eek2: :beer Very cool! Chris- the Wayne Roberts info says my car came with the side mouldings. How do you know that 19 came with side mouldings? The DCRs break that down? Yup, we're having fun!
Jason, Jason, Jason, it's spelled extrapolating.:laugh: :laugh: Just busting on ya for giving Andrew the gears for his spelling goof.
Yup, the DCR's break that down, shame on you for not buying one! SO, if they produced 19 Aqua Mist side Molding cars, out of the 4,784 (non GSX cars), that is only .4%, multiplied by 664 cars, is 2.64, or 1 of 3 cars!!!!!!!!! I was able to do a similar thing with my 69 Stage 1 convertible I just bought. It is Silver, with an auto and A/C. There were 1,158 GS convertibles produced in Flint in 69, and only 37 were Silver Mist, or 3.2%. So, since they only produced 135 Auto Stage 1 Convertibles, then probably only 4.3 were silver. But, :Comp: the DCR's show that there were only 64 Stage 1 Auto Convertibles, so that makes it (most likely) one of two Silver Stage 1 Auto Convertibles with Air!:TU: :laugh: :3gears: Now that is fun!
How about a 70 stage 1 4spd fire red black vinyl top pearl white int. side mouldings rear defrost and no air ?:TU:
Basketball Sam's car was two-tone, not vinyl top, BTW Now onto this . . . I'm gonna use this post as an example. The statistics being used - extrapolating - is not correct. You might as well make up any number. Why? Take the percentage listed above, which I'll round to 13% for the sake of example. That percentage was taken from a certain sample, in this case being the total 455 cars built at Flint. Taking that percentage and applying it to the 103 Aqua Mist cars is statistically incorrect because the color production figures is a different sample. Here's another way to see it: In 1971, 11 Hemicuda ragtops were built. The most popular colors were purple, orange, and red (more or less), but how many of these colors were built? There one yellow, one butterscotch, two white, two red, one orange, one gray, one purple . . . I can't remember the others off the top of my head. But my point is that you can try to manipulate statistics, but it's not as logical as it may appear.:Smarty:
Your absolutely right. I see your point. We can't be certain how many were painted a certain color. For all we know, it could of been 30 Aquamist Stage 1 4 speeds made. We're using the law of averages more than anything. If the same average of 1.89% were applied to the 664 cars, then its possible that 14 cars were painted that color. Its more of a guesstimate than anything else If you used the color percentages in your Hemi Cuda example, they should of all been painted purple, orange and red. And as we know, they arent all just those colors. What kills me is that the information is in the microfilm. If that microfilm information could some how be entered into a computer, we could know for sure exactly how many were built in each color with what options. If you had that info, I bet you that you would'nt find two of the exact same color/ optioned cars in that 664 total.
