When the bough breaks.. stock market, housing, collector car

Nothing, and I mean NOTHING is recession proof. That isn't to say some aren't on better odds of success than others. But about the time you think "I got this covered", things change. Just have to keep moving forward. Watch what those who have the money are doing, not what they are saying.
Cash is trash in the inflation environment we have, so buffet/Berkshire are buying. Watch that Cathy and her ark, and some of the other big movers/shakers. They ain't selling.

 

Ark see's this as a buying opportunity. Average bear market runs 300 days. Buy quality if you are buying!

 

Buy silver

 

If you're approaching or are in retirement, I recommend quality, dividend paying stocks and bonds. Our portfolio has lost about 12% as of today but, dividends have remained about same. We're not selling either unless the stock stops or reduces dividends substantially.

 

I would state that toilet paper production is virtually recession proof. Shipping from production plant to distribution centers and ultimately your local store is still required. Difficult to control how frequently your bowels vacate themselves. I suppose one could not wipe themselves as clean as usual.

Food production and transport probably comes close to recession proof, although people might not purchase as much top echelon goods as during a bull market.

 

https://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/ag3650nyb.html


Why?

 

Silver is used in many things.....it's value will go up in these times and it's a lot easier to trade and barter with because ounce and half ounces are not break the bank expensive like gold.
Plus you can make silver bullets to fend off the werewolves

Peace WildBill

 

You're right, those things are necessities. The problem is, if things get bad enough, some company or person is going to offer to do what you did, only cheaper. That's why nothing is safe in a bad economy.

 

Here's a cool chart:

Performance of Company types During the 2008-09 recession:

 

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I am Recession-Proof, I make sure I have money saved and I work for the Federal Government, my job is always safe from almost anything !! There’s alway Tax money in Washington DC…….just sayin’

 

Boy ain't that the truth.

 

The only thing that is recession proof is booze or grass and food. Everything else is something that people can live without. Everyone needs to eat, people like to drink or smoke their problems away. Silver, gold, collectibles and even real estate means nothing if you can't exchange it to eat. And yes, the first people who get wiped out in an inflation are those who've sunk their fortunes in precious metals; - they are forced to give away bars of gold to eat. How do I know this? My grandparents survived the Weimar Republic inflation of 1922-23, - and those people who had nothing else to trade but silver or gold were cleaned out first, especially those who had everything invested in it.

And yes, watch those who have real wealth, - see what they are doing. They are buying tangible assets at firesale prices, and they aren't selling. They're diversifying.

Money and wealth are relative, and the smart people figure what's worth killing for and hold on to it to trade. They make themselves valuable.

 

Gold and silver are the most manipulated commodities.

 

Yes they are, but only while money has a value. The moment cash becomes worthless, so will these, they just become another hunk of heavy, pretty metal. Then it becomes a negotiation; - what will that food cost, and if I was the seller, what can I do with this stuff, and how easy is it to get rid of, etc. All throughout human history precious metals have only held their value in terms of buying power, they've never appreciated beyond that. Gold sovereigns, (or in the US, gold eagles) are portable, they are of a known weight and fineness, and are fairly easy to get rid of. But, only if someone knows what they are, otherwise, it's just another brass coloured coin. As long as the idea of "money" works, so does precious metal value. In a post depression barter economy, forget it.

Most people when they buy gold or silver get it in the form of paper, they very seldom buy actual ingots, bars or coins. Paper is always worthless. On my wall I have a promissory note issued by the Weimar government supposedly redeemable in Gold Marks...yeah, it was worthless before the ink even dried on it, but some fool bought it thinking it had value. The lesson here is if you decide to buy gold, buy it in actual gold coins issued by a government, avoid all the private mint stuff and avoid buying bars. Buy US $5 - $20 gold Eagles, British Sovereigns, Pre-World War I German Gold Marks, or French Francs, modern Krugerrands, that sort of thing.

Funny story; - had a guy come up to our coin appraisal table at the last show, and he carefully unwrapped these old, highly cleaned and worn down to blanks French coins from the 1790s. He though they were worth a fortune because they were old. He was wrong, they weren't worth a thing. It took me a while to explain to him that age is irrelevant in valuing antique material, condition and demand is what drives value. So he reaches into his pocket, and plunks five coins down and says "so I have no idea what these are, and since they're much newer, they probably aren't worth anything either then." They were gold sovereigns from the late 19th century, - I said, "Oh no, these are worth money, but only in metal weight." Each sovereign worked out to about $400 at the time. He ended up tossing the French stuff in the garbage and cashed in the sovereigns at the bullion dealer and went away a happy man. But he had no idea what he had, and his sense of what was valuable was all wrong. The key to being successful with money and value is to have something that someone is willing to pay or trade for, and in many cases it's not what you think it should be.

One of the biggest reasons there is any fluidity in the bullion markets is because the people with real money will tend to park cash in it for while a currency is dropping until they find something else to invest or hide their money in. Gold is a wealth preservation tool, and only works while currency still has some value. It's never good as a long term "investment". You get out what you put in, albeit in inflated dollars.

However, supply and demand is the key motivator in any economy, be it cash, gold or cigarette based. It's the same as people are saying Crypto is the way to go, - sure, translated into what? Can you pay the power bill with it? What happens when your hard drive gets wiped or crashes, or there's a power failure? And so what are you converting them to? Dollars? Sure...but what if the dollar is worthless, then what? Gold? Sure...who actually has physical gold of an established weight and purity that is certifiable? (not painted lead) Who can test it? Yup; - no one except a pawn shop, and then prepare to get soaked as they do nothing for free and they certainly aren't fair. You've essentially got nothing but a problem.

When it comes to preserving value, it's best to have things that people want or need. The guy who has a farm that grows things has something, so does the guy who owns a grocery. The guy who can provide a useful service or trade (like fixing cars, plumbing, electrical, whatever) will always survive a recession or a depression, the person who works a white collar job likely won't. People who are financed to the teeth will be the first to suffer as interest rates go up and as lending institutions call in loans or want more in interest. See how long your HELOC lifestyle lasts when you goof a payment. Why do you think banks own grocery chains, distribution networks and property. They've hedged their bets with things that are of long term value that no matter what people will still need when everything else becomes valueless.

 

Years ago a friend posed this question to me - If money becomes worthless, which would you rather have, a bar of gold or a can of peaches?

 

Money is a representation of value. Gold has a lot of uses (and value), other than as currency.

Since canning was invented in the 1800s, and countless monetary systems have colapsed, how many times has a can of peaches been worth more than a bar of gold? That should answer your friend's question.

 

Tangible vs intangible value.

 

Right now the best thing to buy is individual stocks with good dividends and balance sheets that you can collect from.
The market has not dropped to the level it did in 2020 But if you are worried sell 1/3 now and hold the cash for some downside and buy what you like. We are still above what it was just before the start of 2020

 

I'm just going to hang onto my portfolio as it sits. It has appreciated 70% in the seven years since I retired. It's going to take a pretty big hit to set me back that far. I'll admit right up front that I have people who do the investing, it's something I'm neither interested in nor capable of. I worked in defense for 27 years after exiting the Navy. That's a job it would be difficult for cheap foreign labor break into. We have some free cash. Once things start looking like close to bottom, my people will make the right choices.

 

I’m buying physical silver and switching all my $ to the Russian Ruble. When the USD collapses it won’t be pretty, the private western central bank is imploding.