Well--it's that time again--Front page of the "Weekend Journal" section (this is a Friday-only section they include with the WSJ--Right there, as the main article, top center of the page--"The New Investment Vehicle.....". Once again another example of a mainstream publication extolling the benefits of musclecar ownership. Inside on page W5 they have a whole page--1/2 text of the story and the other 1/2 is a "Buy", "Hold" and "Sell" rating on cars....same story--they try to identify the cars that are still "affordable" and put a "Buy" rating on them, etc. '67 GS400 Convertible ranks as a "Hold"--"as fast as the Chevies and Pontiacs....not as well known, they could get a lift from the muscle-car movement". Funny, '70 Plymouth Hemi Cuda ranks a "Sell" because it's run up in price so much, reminding the writers of the article of the run up in European sports car prices that occurred in the '80s (and then crashed). Of course, they don't rank all the musclecars but the idea is thrown out there that the prices are on the rise. Don't be suprised if you start getting more middle-aged guys asking you if you want to "sell your Chevelle" :laugh: Patton
USA Today had an article yesterday on same topic. Emphasis was on "fake" GTO's and Chevelle's where lower different base model with same lines was restored and rebadged selling for orignal not clone pricing.
Somehow I get the feeling this is all going to end "badly"---seems like every "hot trend" in the new millenium ends up as a crappy cable TV reality show......hmmmm....maybe we could sell Discovery Channel or TLC a new series (I know they already have Overhaulin and Rides---I'm talking about a show focusing solely on musclecars)......What's next "Survivor" with musclecars? Or maybe a show where they give 5 people some Mad Max type modified musclecars, $20, a tank of gas and set them loose out in the Nevada desert with a list of items, no map of course and whoever ends up at the finish with the items and most money lefteover wins a new car!!! "Mad Max Musclecar Survivor" or something like that. I am thinking of opening up a business selling "fantasy salvage yard" tours...charge a bunch of people to go to an old salvage yard where you know a few good parts are left (or strategically "placed")...take them out there on a bus, feed 'em lunch, etc. Two way Motorola radios supplied, etc. Take their requests for parts, and make sure some of those parts are "in place" before you get to the yard. People pay BIG BUCKS for hunting expeditions where they pretty much know they are going to bag something....so why not do the same except for parts hunting. There is a perfect salvage yard near Austin to test this concept....pretty much all old cars from the 30's up into the 70's....been there at least 50 times so I have a good feel for where to hide the parts. Once all these salvage yard parts are gone people will "miss the thrill of the hunt"..... See the picture in my avatar----it is the same exact picture you see from people that hunt whitetail deer in South Texas--ALWAYS--there in the brush, typically some mesquite trees or cactus in the background, and the hunter holding his trophy there in the grass---Phil Green and I just substituted a couple of nice '70 bumpers in the picture for the whitetail deer...If you look closely you might see the wrench I'm holding ---that is the substitute for the rifle most people are holding in the real pics. This was our South Texas Trophy Bumper Hunt. :Brow:
If you look at how the values of 1930's to 1950's cars have come about in the last 20 years, I don't think the muscle car thing will end badly at all. Basically the prices will eventually level off (after a slight dip) and there it will stay (rising at the same rate of inflation). Since the value of all 1960's cars are increasing and not just the special muscle cars I think this is actually the normal trend and the muscle car boom of the 1980s was just a fluke because of flood of buyers in the marketplace.
What I meant about ending badly was more of a joke--wasn't talking about prices---more aimed at how "hot trends" these days seem to get hijacked and turned into goofy, stupid TV shows, etc. Yeah, the prices are moving up from the demographic "bubble" --- the guys that were around driving age when these cars were new are now in a position to spend the $$ and buy what they couldn't back then. Around here I see it quite a bit. Last weekend we had a large annual charity car show and I was able to compare the cars coming into the show this year compared to the last two years---seeing some changes in the makeup of the vehicles entered and who is bringing the cars.
I've always thought it's hard to see how the value would fall off it you're into the top notch cars. I was a coin collector as a kid. The lesson I learned is that the average quality examples don't appreaciate as much as the top quality ones if you're into them as investments. Most people are driving them for fun though, and that's probably the best use. It's not too hard to keep them nice and therefore I don't think there's much risk of loss. More probability of gain, especially for the best configurations and conditions.
It's just kind of interesting to watch----kind of like keeping a "articles-published" index for musclecars. This happened back in the late 80's--accompanied with a whole rash of articles extolling the value of "collector cars" from publications that normally did not write about them---Barron's, Forbes, WSJ, etc. Same story line--the stock market crashed( remember October 1987?), people saying "I'm putting my money into "real" tangible assets", prices getting bid up on a few select models...history tends to repeat itself and we will see a repeat this time on some of these cars--the ones that are getting bid up to the moon. The article I cited above specifically targets MUSCLECARS as the hottest trend right now. Since I deal in the financial markets I have to be a student of history to some degree as we see the certain cycles repeating themselves in our business....with the same hype, overpricing of assets, etc. It is occurring now in the hedge fund world as it has become the "investment vehicle de-jour" for a lot of investors (individuals and pension funds alike). Here's a good thing to remember---whenever the pension funds start investing into a certain area the end is usually near in terms of any big money being made---pension funds are typically very conservative so they only enter into a "new investment" arena after extreme peer pressure---and inevitably, way too late! They did it big time in the tech bubble and got hammered. What happens is they hold to their conservative ways and watch everyone around them making money in the latest investment fad...for a while they sit back and watch, remaining conservative. After a while, however, the pressure from their board members, participants, etc just becomes too great and they cave in and jump in with both feet. This is exactly what happened in the late 90's in tech. By the time they lower their threshold and start investing things have already run up massively in price and they just end up sustaining the trend a little longer .....then.....WHAM!!!! the wheels come off.
Yep--that's where that crazy idea came from. One Saturday, Phil and I went to this yard down in South Texas...Phil was getting kind of pissed because I told him we'd find some parts for a '70 he had at the time since this guy had about 12 Skylarks in his salvage yard. Well, we dug around, climbed up (cars are stacked 3 high at this yard!) and really could not find anything that great. I could tell Phil was starting to kind of get disgruntled because I think I had a few Olds parts in my hand and we had not located any good "finds" for his Buick. We are standing there saying..."well, crap! doesn't look like we are going to find anything for your Buick"...turn around and we are facing a couple of bumpers sitting on the roof of a later model car and start looking at them---and realize sitting right there is one of the cleanest '70 Skylark/GS front bumper cores is sitting right there! I was relieved--thinking to myself "man, I've been telling Phil about this salvage yard for months now and he's probably thinking "what the hell was he talking about?...what good Buick parts?" On the road leaving the yard I glance over to the side, seeing the taller grass, the cactus and the mesquite trees and a light goes off in my head--good place to get pic of the "trophies" we just found. Slam on the brakes, tell Phil--"get the camera" and I start unloading the bumpers we just loaded up. Next time you are in a store pick up one of those hunting magazines and look at the pics----guy crouched down holding the deer, etc, and always out in the field . What's next???---how about mounting these trophy parts on the wall like a deer head on a plaque!!!! :eek2:
Yeah--the rear bumper had bumper sticker on it "If you love New York...Go Home". Those were popular down here back in the '80's when people started moving to Central TX in a big way.
It would seem the WSJ is already saying some of the cars are overpriced with their buy, sell, and hold catagories. The GS400 convertible was in the hold section while a Hemi Cuda convertible was in the sell section which indicates the WSJ thinks the GS the better investment at this time. The article impressed me. They seemed to have done their homework and didn't even put the "d" on the end of Gran!
