Hagerty Market index August 2017, are prices declining?

https://www.hagerty.com/apps/valuationtools/market-trends/market-rating/August-2017

Drivers of this month's decrease*

After a sizable drop last month, the Hagerty Market Rating is down again with a decrease of half a point to 64.86. This is the rating's sixth drop so far this year.

• While the auction activity section of the rating had been kept strong by increases in the number of cars sold at auction so far this year, the trend hasn't continued and auction activity decreased for the second consecutive month thanks to a 2% drop in the number of cars sold compared to last month. Private sales activity also experienced its second consecutive decrease, again thanks to a small drop in the average sale price as well as a small drop in the number of vehicles selling for above their insured values.
• The number of owners expressing the belief that the values of their vehicles are increasing continues to gradually decline, and this is true for the owners of both mainstream and high-end vehicles. The drop is particularly pronounced, however, for owners of previously hot models like the Ferrari 308 and Ford GT.
• For the second month in a row, expert sentiment dropped more than any other section.

 

So in 10-15 more years I can finally get my C2 Corvette? It sure seems like the prices are still up from seeing what people are still paying for muscle cars in our area any way.

 

Many segments have dropped, and/or leveled out. I have a friend who is currently restoring a Series 1 Jaguar E-type convertible, and he watches market trends very closely. He told me recently values of those cars have become stagnant, and perhaps dropped a little. He wishes now he had not undertaken the restoration.

Muscle cars tend to fare worse than high end exotics in down markets, so the average GS is probably going to sell for less than it did two years ago. Exactly how much less is dependent on many factors though, as we are all aware.

 

You can see the trend in the auctions on TV.

 

Of course the prices are declining, I just bought one.

 

what goes up, must come down.........and we're on the way down.

Really noticing it in the tri-five chevy prices. I think I'm finally going to be able to afford one.
Core age group of owners are either a) dying off, or b) selling off.
1957 was 60 years ago, a guy that was 18 and graduated high school in 1957 is now 78 years old, more than likely a guy that was out of school a couple years working a good job was 20 years old in 1957, he is 80 years old.
Watched this happen with older guys my Dad worked with back in the late 70's, early 80's. These guys all had big bucks into Model T's and A's. Once they died off, the prices of those cars went into the toilet.

 

I think in general it's going down, especially with the cars that everyone "has to have" like tri-five Chevys, 67-69 Camaros, 1st Gen Mustangs, Smokey and the Bandit Firebirds, etc.....Some are on an upswing like Rivieras and Cadillacs. Seems like off brand 50s stuff is coming up, too, which is why I'm looking for a '53-57 Buick now before they get up there. I don't buy mine to sell, though, I buy them to keep. Just different trends, seems to me like people are getting into long and low affordable cruisers now that the "investor" types have had their fill of musclecars. Just my casual observations.

 

And don't underestimate how high volumes of restoration parts change supply of some popular restorations. Man, there are a lot of restored Mustangs, Camaros and tri-five Chevys out there because you can literally buy every piece of the car new except the VIN tag itself... It seems like wagons and pickups are the really hot resto-mods right now. Maybe in 20 years we'll see an 80s Dodge Caravan with 22-inch carbon fiber wheels -- converted to all electric! ;-))

 

From our end selling older cars, the 70s and 80s iron is red hot. Wagons, four door sedans and the mid to late 70s Malibus, Grand Prix, Monte Carlos, Olds Cutlass/442 are going up in value. The 80s G bodies are up 23 percent, and Grand Nationals, nice original or low mileage examples are pulling strong coin.

Muscle cars, the pedigree versions are still pulling serious coin. I see people who mod their cars and feel because they put X amount in it will increase the value. That is not always the case. Stock or original always pulls more modified except the trend with Chevys lately if you watch closely, is that resto mods are pulling more money than an original #s matching big block car or survivor type.

Even some vehicles like 80s Collector Series Lesabres, late 70s Broncos, late 70s Trans Ams, late 70s Country Squire wagons are pulling really high money. Wagons, four door sedans and a lot of oddball 80s and 70s iron is really posting impressive numbers.

 

I think it might actually have a lot to do with the fact that the government and the auto manufacturers are starting change to the way we drive. Public attitudes are changing. Government predicts that we'll go to self-driving electric cars in 20 years and the manufacturers are responding. Gasoline engines will become the coal steamers of the 21st century. Diesel went from being 'the way to go" to a pariah inside a couple of months, and the fact that every manufacturer is under some form of investigation isn't helping. There's also the fact that the stock markets are picking up, so "the money" that was looking for a safe place to park is now being moved back into the stock markets. There's also the fact that the supply of cars is pretty much infinite; if you don't have a tri-5 Chevy or Mustang, you can build one, totally re-pop. The whole hobby was infected by greed; the true collectors were driven out years ago by speculators. Now things are starting to correct, and like it has been said in the above posts, but the demographic is dying off or retiring.

Unfortunately I see this as the beginning of the end for our obsession with post-war vintage gasoline cars. Most people see a car as an appliance, and these nice old cars are too expensive to own or maintain to justify getting into them. There is no way for anyone except the service industry to make money on these things, the owners who used to rebuild these cars out of love and cheap are all gone, and it doesn't make business sense to restore a car these days. The standards for restoration are impossible and the average hobbyist hasn't got the scratch to make it happen anymore. I know if I didn't have the cars I've got and had to start all over again it would be impossible. As such, this hobby is now on life-support.

I saw that first hand at what used to be a large swap meet this summer. This hobby is beginning to die. Where 20 years ago there were deals to be had and hundreds of guys pushing wheelbarrows of parts and stuff around, today the same vendors are still there, the aisles have gotten wider, the "good" stuff is gone, the prices for what they couldn't sell then is up 10-fold, and there were no customers save for a couple of die-hards and a few old guys who had clearly lost their way. There were no young people there at all, except for a few grand-kids who really didn't want to be there. Wrecker's yards, were dreams used to be made have all but disappeared because of punitive "green" legislation, and what is left is pretty much scrap.

If a guy was smart he'd sell out now while there was a bit of a market. But most of us won't, and we'll still own these things long after they end up getting banned off the highways or legislated to scrap heaps. Till then I'm going to drive mine and not give a tinker's cuss what they're worth, because to me they're still priceless.

 

I agree Marc, most of us love the cars more than money and did not buy the cars as investments. I am encouraged by all the young people I see on the Power Tour each year though, good to see there is still some interest for the future. As we all age there will be a lot of cars on the market, especially since many people have between 2 and 20 cars.

 

I agree with 90% of what you said, the last paragraph 100%. As far as the swap meets being dead, I feel that is mostly the fault of things like eBay and Craigslist. Why go and find a hidden treasure in person when you can sit in your air conditioned home or car on your phone and do "the same thing" in most people's minds? I personally miss the real swap meets, going with my dad, and finding all kinds of cool emblems, old race parts, wheels, etc. that I didn't even know I wanted and will never see again in person. It was cool. People have forgotten that part of this hobby/obsession, the personal contact and talking to the old guard. The cheap cars are still out there. I for one never know what I want until I see it in person. That's how I've ended up with half the things I've owned in my life. I have less than half a new truck invested into my F100, Cadillac, Riviera, F250, and the girlfriend's F250, a person just has to look and be willing to work and learn on them themselves. Ive been lucky that my family instilled the car bug in me and taught me how to do things myself. I feel really lucky to have found this Buick forum as well. It's pretty much the only one I frequent anymore and I thank you other real car guys for being on here, I really enjoy our conversations even though I'm just a youngish guy with a old guy mentality.

 

I agree with Lucas and Jim. In my opinion several things are afoot, first, the cars we love are aging with us, disappearing from the roads, so they're not as relevant or within reach of younger people. I remember seeing nice muscle cars being driven, and ratty, not as nice versions being driven or sitting in yards or behind buildings, and donor cars in the yards. There were a lot around to inspire the dream. Even G bodies are getting scarce and expensive, and finding one in PullAPart? Not any more. Secondly, the 'hot' cars now are so complicated, I'm wondering if they 'll be maintainable after a certain age, and the manufacturers are perfectly happy (as is the government) with the idea of cars as high feature appliances that we never pay off and keep, just keep paying the monthly fee and recycle when we turn them in. They also are moving their engineering process this way-I can see fixing up, maintaining and using a secondhand 65 Electra, 75 Electra, 85 LeSabre, 95 Roadmaster, but as those cars are replaced with unibody Wrong Wheel Drive boxes there's no 'there' there. A little old lady fresh 84 Riviera is nice, fixable, and maintainable. A 95? Drive it 'til it breaks, then scrap it. Even if we want to buck the trend and keep it, the parts and software may not be there to support it or will be a lot harder to access. Kinda like trying to use a bag phone. The fun of machinery will survive, but it may be relegated to a hobby only for the dedicated. The casual enthusiast may give up the idea of keeping a cool car past payoff or buying a fun old car as a toy. As to the swap meets, I really miss browsing and finding things I didn't know I wanted--I miss record stores and making mix tapes, too-but I don't blame vendors for not going to the hassle of burning up a whole weekend on hit or miss crowds, weather, etc when you can snap pics and post and wait for responses. I fear that a lot of what helped us become car people isn't there for the next generation. Or it'll be a lot harder to find.
Patrick

 

I'm seeing quite a few guys selling off their collections now as they move into retirement homes or assisted living complexes. There are a lot of cars on the market. Some guys though, figure that they are sitting on gold mines and have their prices way out to lunch; - so then the cars sit. Some people have hung on to them to the bitter end and left family to try and get rid of them with the usual pitfalls. So prices are way out of whack, I'm not sure how accurate one can take this Haggerty average for. Everyone lies when it comes to assessing their car's value, its always worth more when your selling it or trying to get it fixed, but it isn't worth anything if you're buying it or trying to get a loan for it.

The biggest problem I'm seeing is the pool of people who would buy these cars are just not there. Sure, there are enough 40-50 year old guys who finally have the disposable cash who are getting into it, but the bell curve on them is declining, the supply of cars will exceed the demand in the next 5 years.

Besides the fact that to the younger generation old cars are just not cool but video games and electronics are, there are still some mechanically inclined kids out there who need an outlet. Our generation never provided that. Most guys hung out in the garage to get away from the kids, and most wives wouldn't let the kids into the garage because of the bad language, gratuitous boozing, and the safety aspect. Sure, that's a generalization...but for a lot of people it probably isn't far off the mark. So we've limited the pool of prospective participants just by letting modern TV and electronics be the babysitter instead of getting sonny-boy out into the garage cleaning rocker arms. I'm sure some of you did get your kids involved, did they stay involved or did they go on to their own things? All of the traditional middle-class hobbies are seeing a marked decline in numbers and a general downshift in over all values as demand for what they offer decreases.

Look at the economy and demographics, and you'll see the where the future of our hobby is headed. Most people who entered the work force in the 1990s or beyond have bounced from job to job, don't have a benefits package, and have never had the long term careers that my generation and older have had. Therefore that means a lot less disposable cash, and with that comes decreasing interest in hobbies. The actual interest might still be there, guys would still love to get into old cars, but they'll never have the means as North America moves more away from a manufacturing economy to a service economy. The biggest driver for hobbies like ours was the fact that most of the participants had a lot of disposable cash, a fair bit of free time, and the inherent skills to do the job; something that an industrial economy used to provide. The Baby-Boomer generation was the most privileged and richest generation to have ever lived in human history; and once it's gone, it's all over, we'll never see anything like it again.

That, unfortunately, is a reality of the new world we live in. There really is no argument to counter it. As long as the economy on this continent continues to out-source and shed high-paying manufacturing jobs, (the middle class) hobbies like ours which involve a fair bit of money, a lot of free time, and the skills (learned by doing a repetitious factory style job) will cease to exist. So it's only inevitable that the products of our hobbies will then become quaint little redundancies which will hopefully be picked up by museums.

If there's anything positive to be gleaned from this, time capsules and full on stock restorations will hold some value, hot rods and resto-rods will probably become folk-art.

 

I've got a center console boat, from what I've heard from the fishing forums and such, kids aren't into fishing much today either. So I will be blessed with a car no one is interested in the future, and a boat likewise.
But, I still have my ace in the hole, I have a Kubota tractor and they are coveted by everyone!

 

16 years ago, I bought the Wildcat intending it to be for my first grandchild, who was born less than a month ago. In the intervening years, I managed to restore and customize it, not caring about its inherent value. My son is not quite the gearhead his father is, but he's able to swing a wrench proudly. My concern isn't whether the 'Cat will be worth anything by the time the grandboy is able to drive it; like Marc said - will there even be interest in this hobby by then? My son may show him the ropes while working on the family rides (2015 and 2017 rides at that), but cars like ours require not just dedication but also "old timers" who may not even be around in another 16 years. I may have been born too late....

 

Tri 5 Nats at Beech Bend had 2800 cars 2 weekends ago. That is not a typo. Buicks are a smaller niche market. I just came back from Woodward Dream Cruise, which i have been attending since the second or third one ever and it was jammed packed. More boomers are selling their old cars and getting modern muscle. Cant blame them. I think the hobby is still very strong. I take great interest because of the fact my stepfather buys a ton of old cars per year as many see i market and sell on Facebook and instagram. We dont really advertise and the cars sell themselves. We had one gentlemen who bought 9 cars from us at one time from Italy. We seem to ship more outside the state of Ohio and the country then sell locally. Ohio and Michigan to me have the country clocked as we have the largest cruises and shows and from May to October you cant attend events 7 days a week. I still see tons of cars and more and more events popping up.

The hobby now is stronger than ever. I am 35. You see more people my age are finally coming around with more cash and buying the cars they grew up with like 80s Turbo Regals and others that are appreciating. Even though people say the cars of the 1950s are going down because the owners are dying off, there are still quite a few buying them up and buying more of them and having fun with them. Sure as people age they get less capable physically of handling an older car and thus have to part ways. I still think the generation is still a while away from the pitfalls of the Model T and what not where the owners are not around and therefore the demand and value follows suit.

Plus the CAFE standards for America to my knowledge have been withdrawn as well. Therefore manufacturers do not have the pressure from the government to hurry up and get vehicles to fuel regulations and safety etc as much as the rush was portrayed to be as of the last several years.

To me the hobby may not be like when i was growing up in the 1980s and muscle cars were red hot and people were buying and restoring them and the market was hot. Today still i disagree with some market indexes as i have several examples that we sell , actually a lot more than several to prove the so called experts wrong. The Europeans and Aussies and those from the Middle East are buying larget amounts of old 1970s land yachts. I have a gentlemen from the Middle East who has bought 3 in a matter of 2-3 months and still wants more and more. A lot of the people internationally have told me if they take a hit on the car after shipping or market fall out , they take their lumps and if the get bored, they sell the car and get something else. Im not sure if its condescending to say this , but a lot of local people i know, seem to really knit pick a lot of the survivor and original cars, then complain when we sell them overseas. I give everyone a fair shot but when someone buys 3 or 4 or 9 cars from us, a lot of times we give them first crack before they hit the market and they are sold before i even photograph or advertise them. Just because you dont want to pay the price for a car because you dont particularly care for the car or dont think it is worth it, or w/e reason, doesnt mean someone else doesnt see it as a great buy, a car they want and buy it immediately. I for one am amazed on some of the cars that we put up for sale and how quickly they sell. The market to us is very strong and though we dont cater to frame off 100k muscle cars, we try to cater to original survivor type cars. People like them and they are only original once. The cars that were not wanted or made fun of like wagons, 4 doors, Pintos, Vegas are all going up in value and desire because so many bit the dust during day to day driving back in the day.

Swap meets are not what they were due to Ebay, Craiglist and electronic advertising. Same with print media and newsletters. Buicks really only had a few performance cars. Turbo Regals and Gran Sports. Our events will stay the size, at least i hope due to the diehards carrying the torch for continuing to keep them on the road. GS Nats been around since 1980. Only other national event that long is Mopar Nats and they have a ton of muscle car based models they have made and continue in production to this day. Apples and oranges comparison.

Like the cycle of life people and cars come and go. One post on Facebook showed a guy in Canada with a low mile GN he was having serviced and shipped to his climate controlled garage for investment and storage purposes. A lot of people have treated those cars as such. But clean original G bodies are getting hard to find. As muscle cars got priced out of many people's income levels, more sedans and wagons and other cars became hot pieces overnight and demand for everything takes off. Enjoy them and take good care of them. The generation of kids are enjoying these computer cars even the modern ones and still many of them who grew up in old iron will keep the torch going strong ! Believe me!

 

Tony that's interesting info. I wouldn't know because I don't deal with Buicks as business. I'd pretty well agree with what you said. I think that the days of nitpicking are over. These guys have a ton of knowledge, but when it coming to buying cash talks.

It is good to hear that you think the hobby is still going. I can tell you from experience that where I live, I have seen maybe only a handful of guys my age that enjoy these old cars. Old meaning anything from the 80s and prior.

It actually kind of frightens me what will happen to all these rods that guys have put their life into. I work with furniture and I can tell you that many of the current generation consider older furniture to be junk, when the opposite is true. New furniture is generally junk and can expect a 2 year life.

 

I see a lot of what Tony is saying in our area. In my opinion this hobby is not dying, it is thriving right now. At least in our area. In 20 years it may not be so hot though. I agree, the amount of young people in this hobby is down, but i wouldn't say there are none in it. I'm only 36 and pretty much all my friends are into old cars, trucks, or just cars and truck sin general. Tony is right, the reason so much of the over looked cars and trucks are so popular now is because people can afford to buy them and build them. Plus, these cars and trucks are different than what is out there and to me the new trend is to be different. Which can be hard to do.

Take it from a young'n that is building a 40 Ford with an early Hemi. The hobby isn't dying. The stuff is just getting harder to find and the prices continue to go up. Just go look at my thread on my GS400. Most of the replies are that car isn't worth saving. Well, it'll be 18-24 years until my kids are out of high school and college, so I'll be building it because I don't have the $15k laying around to go buy a survivor. And GM sure won't be making anymore of them.

On the modern muscle thing, people are doing it because it's easy! Buy a fast car and make it faster and have modern amenities in them. Makes sense to me, but in the same sense, that's not for me. I don't own anything newer than 2002. I've pretty much built every daily driver we've had except for 2 in the last 10 years. I just like to build things and will continue to as long as I can afford it.

Tony hit the swap meet portion pretty well too. I still go to swap meets but only when I think I might be able to find something I need. The major reason I quit going is the prices are always new or higher than new, but the chance to get a deal is the main reason to go. Since I've been into diesels for so long, and trying to find any early Hemi stuff at a swap meet that's affordable, I've had not many reasons to go.

I for one believe it'll be many years before they can even try to outlaw classic cars. The aftermarket is such a huge industry in this country, and our road networks are so far off from being able to support so many drive by wire cars, it'll take many years to get it all worked out. Just check out the class 8 trucks with their new lane assist systems. They don't work half the time because the lines are either not on the road ways, or too many lane markers and such are always missing. Those trucks will drive without them but the drive by wire cars they want to get to sure won't be able to operate like that.

 

I hope the car hobby continues to exist and rallies into a strong lobby if need be. It only takes a couple of elections to stack the deck against it, and neither the above noted hurdles, logic, nor cost would deter many of our congressmen. A truly strong lobby can hold influence over either party, but somehow I don't see SEMA weilding the power that the NRA does.
Patrick